An Analysis of Frida Kahlo and Carmen Lomas Garza Essay

Social Versus Opportunities: An Analysis of Frida Kahlo And Carmen Lomas Garza Words 1,715 Both of these works of art show the affection and want to clutch ones legacy and family customs which is critical in Hispanic families. Both with clear hues and pictures. In Kahlo’s â€Å"Self Portrait on the Border Line Between Mexico and the United States†, despite the fact that she is a Mexican lady living in a non-Mexican nation, she can acknowledge the two sides and clutch her own Mexican legacy and culture which it appears she liked. In Garza’s â€Å"Camas Para Suenos†(Beds for Dreams), Garza is demonstrating the affection and closeness she had with her sister and how her mom permitted them to dream and reach after those fantasies as they stayed in contact with their legacy and culture which is apparent in her work. Clutching ones own way of life is significant. It ought not be overlooked. It ought to be grasped and tought to ones own youngsters. As Kahlo’s painting portrays, learning of others legacy and culture can be another method of grasping your own and figuring out how to acknowledge and find it everywhere. The loss of culture can be destroying to the personality of countries and families. Brief realities about craftsman Frida Kahlo’s adolescence and grown-up years present her unpredictable existence of the brain and soul. Frida. ( Dec 4, 2002) The Christian Century from Fine Arts and Music Collection by means of Gale) The fine art brings out mystical authenticity without endeavoring to emulate the skilled Mexican craftsman, who painted â€Å"what she finds in her heart, on what she sees with her eyes. † Kahlo’s Self Portrait on the Border Line Between Mexico and the United States, painted in 1932, is an exceptionally noteworthy work that gives a brief look into the heart, psyche, and soul of Kahlo herself. The composition talks about the association, or the scarcity in that department, among Mexico and the United States. It is an unobtrusive, yet incredibly amazing composition. Kahlo did this artistic creation while she sat tight for her better half, Diego Rivera, to wrap up his wall painting in Detroit. During this time she endured a horrendous unsuccessful labor and was admitted to the Henry Ford medical clinic. She felt forlorn and detached from life and all that she knew. This canvas is a declaration of how Kahlo saw herself stuck some place in limbo, in a spot far away from her adored Mexican country. P 34(1) In the front, at the base, of each side of the canvas lies roots. As an afterthought that is associated with the United States the roots are really links or strings that originate from some modern item. The foundations of these items are dark and take various shapes, for example, long and coming to or twisted. They are plainly similar to modern ropes and are not really intelligent of anything that is common. On the opposite side, the Mexican side, the roots are real underlying foundations of plants that develop out like normal roots, venturing into the ground. What makes these roots critical, beside their conspicuous contrasts, lies in the way that one of the ropes comes to down, and under Kahlo, contacting the underlying foundations of another plant. That plant seems to have earthy colored cases which could well speak to how the mechanical unnatural truth of the United States is covering and murdering all that is common, and for this situation Mexico too. It is inescapable and dull in nature. This is additionally underscored by the way that Mexico’s roots are normal and natural, though the United States’ roots are dull, and unmistakably artificial and unnatural. In this work of art, show Kahlo wearing a dress that is exceptionally suggestive of an American dress. It is a basic dress yet it is pink and has numerous unsettles along the base of the skirt. Somehow or another it appears to be intelligent of the Civil War time, without the nearness of an amazing circle skirt underneath, or maybe a dress of the old West days in the United States. Whatever the case it's anything but a dress that is intelligent of Kahlo yet of the United States . Furthermore, in the hand that is looking towards Mexico Kahlo holds a Mexican banner. In the hand that is looking towards the United States she holds a cigarette. Her hands are crossed. This all recommends impacts she prefers, hates, and is maybe befuddled by. She is, in this image, some portion of the two universes and obviously the side that is comparative with Mexico is enthusiastic and Mexican in soul. However, the hand that holds a cigarette plainly talks about the mechanical and harming nature of the United States, maybe proposing the negative impact the United States has on Mexico. In accordance with strict symbols or pictures there are no undeniable strict pictures as an afterthought with the United States. In any case, when one poses that inquiry, with respect to strict, one may well contend that industrialization, assembling, and smokestacks, is the religion of the United States. On the Mexican side are numerous references to the history and the religion of Mexico. There is the thing that has all the earmarks of being a goddess sculpture with two babies, a sculpture from antiquated Aztec religions maybe, and the old design components of Mexico. The whole normal introduction of Mexico is offered in a strict nature, in any event, consolidating a skull which could well identify with the Day of the Dead, a strict occasion for Mexico. The religion of the United States, for this situation, would be large scale manufacturing, pulverization of the earth, and cash. The way that Kahlo is in the focal point of the artistic creation doesn't recommend any shared view, yet rather talks, doubtlessly, of some inner battle inside Kahlo as she sees her country impacted and maybe obliterated by the United States. She is unmistakably a piece of the United States and on the off chance that one glances at her life one can see that her contribution with Diego obviously put her in cozy relationship with the dealings of the United States. Be that as it may, she is unmistakably sending a picture that shows she isn't content with the United States and finds unquestionably more harmony and excellence in Mexico, her home. Schjeldahl, P. (Nov 5, 2007) Kahlo is genuinely a national fortune of Mexico, a nation that her work communicates not simply as a culture however as a total human progress, with significant roots in a few pasts and with appropriate styles of innovation. P (92) In Carmen Lomas Garzas painting â€Å"Camas Para Suenos† (Beds for Dreams), two youngsters can be spotted, sitting on the top of their home, looking up at the full moon. Underneath them in the room, their mom is preparing the bed for the kids to stay in bed, and a cross can be seen holding tight the divider behind her. This picture reviews a period of effortlessness, where youngsters can calmly sit and star look, while their cover wearing moms make the beds wherein they will snooze. The picture is depicted through the extent of a kid, and its message calls for Mexicans to recall their way of life. Roback, D. (July 13, 1990). Amidst bigotry and segregation, Garza make an effort not to endless supply of that; rather, she seeks the family for goals Mexican-American Garza has liberally managed perusers a brief look at her loved adolescence in a poor country Hispanic people group. Her day by day exercises and affectionate recollections are connected in canvases . Of the work of art Garza expressed â€Å"My sister and I used to go up on the rooftop on summer evenings and simply remain there and talk about the stars and the heavenly bodies. We additionally discussed what's to come. I knew since I was 13 years of age that I needed to be a craftsman. And every one of those things that I longed for doing as a craftsman, I’m at last doing now. My mom was the person who enlivened me to be a craftsman. She made up our beds to stay in bed and have ordinary dreams, however she likewise spread out the bed for our fantasies of things to come. P 54(2) This artwork was roused by energetic discussions with her sister and their craving to become craftsmen and centers around the cheerful recollections of regular day to day existence with her family. The two sisters, Garza being one, are perched on the rooftop near the moon and stars, imparting their fantasies to on ano ther. The way that they were Mexicans, in the United States didn't change the way that they had dreams they wished to achieve.

The Poem Negro by Langston Hughes Essay -- Poetry Analysis

The sonnet â€Å"Negro† was composed by Langston Hughes in 1958 where it was a period of African American turn of events and the introduction of the Civil Rights Movement. Langston Hughes, as a first individual storyteller recounts to an account of what he has experienced as a Negro, and the existence he is glad to have had. He communicates his enthusiastic encounters and makes the peruser consider what precisely it resembled to carry on with his life during this time. By utilizing explicit words, this permits the peruser to imagine the various circumstances he has been gotten through. Beginning the sonnet with the announcement â€Å"I am a Negro:† tells individuals what his identity is, Hughes proceeds by saying, â€Å" Black as the night is dark,/Black like the profundities of my Africa.† He distinguishes Africa similar to his and is glad to be as dim as night, and as dark as the profundities of the core of his nation. Being glad for him self, legacy and cultur e is unmistakably appeared in this first refrain. The structure of this sonnet isn't the conventional type of verse, in that he starts with a first individual articulation then after a space, he expounds on it nearly lik...

Migrant Workers and the American Dream Essay Sample free essay sample

First distributed in 1937. Honorable laureate John Steinbeck’sOf Mice and Mennarrates the grievous story of George Milton and Lennie Small. two Migrant farm laborers in California during the Great Depression of the nineteen-thirties. Turning up in Salinas. California. Steinbeck lived in the chest of a section that depended, all things considered, on transitory homestead laborers like George and Lennie in his novel. The essayist had in this manner saw from truly lacking elbow room. the life. the fantasies and the edginess of these uprooted laborers. InOf Mice and MenandThe Grapes of Wrath. Steinbeck painted a grievous picture of the issues of this open. who. without place. without roots. with no ground tackle to stay them or asylum to rescue them from the unsmooth tempests of life. floated about the state in chase of a pitiful help. But then. like George and Lennie. somewhere inside all they ached for was a topographic point to name place †this miserable want to have a lit tle real estate parcel some twenty-four hours. We will compose a custom paper test on Vagrant Workers and the American Dream Essay Sample or on the other hand any comparable theme explicitly for you Don't WasteYour Time Recruit WRITER Just 13.90/page a spot. a ‘shelter from the storm’ is the thing that drove them on. During the mature ages of 1880s to 1930s. colossal figure of work powers voyaged all over America. to a great extent during the regular harvest looking for work in the ranches. As Steinbeck’s epic Tells us. they earned a unimportant sum as compensation. alongside supplement and extremely fundamental change. The First World War. followed by a downturn. also, the horrendous joblessness work during the Depression. only served to puzzle issues and the occupations of the transient laborers duplicated a hundredfold. Organizations were set up under the New Deal to guide ranch laborers to where they were required. In the novel. George and Lennie got their plants cards from Murray and Ready’s. one of these authorities. During the 1930s these ranch laborers had an extremely hard life. Steinbeck depicts the life of Lennie and George with strong and telling shots. It is a troublesome life harvesting grain. The conditions is hot and dry. the prizes are light. what's more, the feelin g itself is undependable on some random spread. Moreover. the organization the two work powers keep up is an awful impact. As they head out from spread to farm. rescuing each penny they acquire. George and Lennie set themselves apart from different laborers who spend their cash on spirits. gaming. what's more, grown-up females in light of the fact that between themselves they esteem a fantasy of their ain. In any case, the novel uncovers the difficulty of woolgathering for these transitory specialists. Lennie and George are simply standard work powers. craving for their ain interminable to happen harmony. relaxation. also, self-satisfaction: simply â€Å"a little house and a duo of bequests. † But their projects go awfully erroneously ; they can non hope to maintain a strategic distance from their inescapable licking just by craving for an alternate fate. â€Å"Tell about how it’s gon na be. † ( 17 ) asks Lennie. the gigantic. bear-like youngster man. who sticks to trust through unlikely however anxious well disposed relationship with George. Hushed like a little child by delicate things and George’s rehashed confidences. Lennie looks frontward to the twenty-four hours he will pet and care for coneies on the spread he and his closest companion have made sure about. In any case, George. more astute and to a greater extent a pragmatist than Lennie. sees better the difficulties of ever convey throughing the fantasy they seek after together. He protests about how things are: â€Å"Guys like us. that deal with spreads. are the loneliest felines known to mankind. † ( 41 ) He is too much insightful of the void. insecure existence of vagrant specialists. Be that as it may. he too much is a visionary. what's more, holding left Murray and Ready’s in San Francisco to happen farm work in the Salinas Valley. George longs to end the life of resiling from one occupation to the accompanying with all that he possesses enclosed by one bundle. In any case, disaster counts in their repercussions and the new terminals with the perish of Lennie and the expire of George’s dream. The life of the transitory laborers of the 1930s as introduced in this account serves to reveal the void of the Great American Dream. Harmony. success. opportunity. land †everything America vowed to its residents †stayed a neer accomplishable dream for this appalling batch.Of Mice and Menbusynesss with the unsophisticated cynicism voiced by the helper. Hoodlums: â€Å"Ever’ natural structure needs a little bit of lan’ †¦ Cipher ever gets to paradise and figure gets no lan’ . † ( 38 ) Unquestionably. things have changed an incredible exchange from the dull yearss of Depression. The transitory laborers of today’s America gain a collection of protections. are better paid and work under better status. In any case, a few things continue as before. They are still pitiably hapless. Truth be told. â€Å"In 1994-95. 60 one for every centum of ranch laborers lived in poverty†¦ . † ( Farm Worker Conditions. 2000 ) . What's more, even today. â€Å"800. 000 of the 2. 5 million transient laborers in the U. S. do non hold the correct life conditions that they ought to be entitled to† ( Steven Greenhouse. New York Times. 1998 ) . The lives of the transitory laborers and their family units despite everything stay in a continuous area of motion ; they despite everything long for a real estate parcel of their ain. they despite everything experience the ill effects of the constant rootless cape. Be that as it may. absolutely things have improved. Plants Cited Ranch Worker Conditions. 18 Sept. 2000. Rural Missions Inc lt ; hypertext move convention:/www. nccusa. organization/publicwitness/mtolive/blacklist gt ; . Steinbeck. John.Of Mice and Men. New York: Penguin Books. 1994. Steinbeck. John.The Grapes of Wrath. New York: Viking. 1989. Timmerman. John H. â€Å"The Squatter’s Circle in The Grapes of Wrath. † Studies in American Fiction ( Autumn 1989 ) : 203-211. Writing Resource Center. Hurricane. â€Å"As U. S. Economy Booms. Lodging for Migrant Workers Worsens. † New York Times 31 May 1998. 5 Mar. 2002 lt ; hypertext move convention:/www. ufw. organization/hythsg. htm gt ; .

Aspen Tech case study Essay

History and Overview †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Specialized in the improvement of recreation programming for client in process producing ventures †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Advanced System for Process Engineering (ASPEN) venture directed at the Massachusetts Intitutes of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge Massachusetts, from 1976 to 1981 †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Founded in 1981 by Dr. Larry Evans, an educator of substance building at MIT †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Larry Evans†leadership in the turn of events and utilization of incorporated frameworks for displaying, reenactment and enhancement of mechanical substance process History and Overview †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ In 1982 its first year of activities, AspenTech lost USD565,000 on deals of USD182,000 †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Over next 13 years AspenTech’s deals developed quickly as it turned into a significant payer in the process recreation fragment of the product business. †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ 1995 organization earned overall gain $5.4 million on deals $57.5 million. AspenTech assessed that it told half of the reproduction showcase for concoction part. †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ 1995, it utilized 417 individuals of which 265 product situated in the US and the rest of office in 5 nations. History and Overview †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ AspenTech opened up to the world in USDD31 million IPO which incorporated a USD 18 Million essential contribution and USD 13 Million auxiliary contribution : â€â€ ¯ to back further R&D â€â€ ¯ to obtain remotely created advancements â€â€ ¯ to permit early financial specialists to adapt their property in the organization, †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Feb1995, Aspentech directed a $23 million open contribution, which incorporated a USD 1 million essential contribution and USD 22 million optional contribution. †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ 1995, AspenTech was the just one of the organizations that worked in recreation programs for compound oil, and petrochemicals businesses that was traded on an open market. Items (versi makalah) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Aspen Plus Aspen Plus is the most famous item a consistent state displaying framework worked around the center innovation This item accounted 48% of deals in 1995 †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Speed UP It was AspenTech’s dynamic procedure displaying item popularized in 1986 by Prosys Tecknology that AspenTech bought in 1991 †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Max It is a less incredible variant of Aspen Plus †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Advent A product to improve the tradeoff between capital uses for vitality sparing warmth exchangers and the vitality sparing figured it out  Product Portfolio (versi makalah) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Properties PLUS It is a database of synthetic concoctions properties hidden its different items, well known with clients ~ created in-house demonstrating programming †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Other modules â€â€ ¯ offers to the clients ~ permit independently â€â€ ¯ use with its different items to show subsystems utilized in exceptionally particular synthetic concoctions handling application. Item Portfolio (versi web) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Process Engineering ††††††††Procedure reproduction Chemicals (10 items : AspenPlus) Procedure reproduction Oil&Gas (8 items : AspenHYSYS) Procedure reenactment Refining (11 items : Aspenadsim+) Procedure reenactment Batch/Pharma (8 items :Aspenproperties) Model Deployment (3 items : AspenModelrunner) Hardware displaying (8 items :AspenAcol+) Fundamental Engineering (2 items :AspenKbase) Monetary Evaluation (3 items : Aspn Icarus Project Manager) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Advance Process Control (14 items : Aspen Apollo, Aspen IQ) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Planning and Scheduling (10 items : Aspen Advisor, Aspen MBO) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Supply and Distribution (3 items : Aspen Retail) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Production Management and Execution (16 items : Aspen 0server) Deals and Marketing †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯1995, authorized to in excess of 450 organizations ~ synthetic industry and 350 univerities †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯The selling cycle for process displaying programming was long (6 a year) †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯AspenTech charged a premium over contenders items, raise authorizing expenses multiple times (1998-1995)~10% †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Customer unwaveringness â€â€ ¯ Over 90% reestablished their product â€â€ ¯ 1994 : 34% income from programming reestablishment; 34% from development from existing client †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯United States : â€â€ ¯ Directs deals power â€â€ ¯ Earned blend of compensation and commission †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Sales auxiliaries : UK, Japan, HongKong, Brussels â€â€ ¯ Serve neighborhood and territorial markets by means of coordinates deals powers †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Licensed programming for a non-cancelable term ~ 3 or 5 years †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Charge : â€â€ ¯ yearly charge x permit term (year) â€â€ ¯ Interest rate 9.5% †11% presently 12% †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Customer were bound to purchase programming estimated in nearby money Hazard Exposure 1.†¯ Foreign Exchange Risk ††††offer programming in neighborhood currenciesâ installment from three-to-five years makes outside trade introduction swapping scale vacillations 52% income produced from outside organization with following incomes figures: †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Europe 31% †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Asia 12% †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯Other nations 9% †¢Ã‚ In United State 48%. Hazard presentation are may be material :Transaction Exposure (High) most the costumer worked outside of US Interpretation Exposure (Low) convert outside cash fiscal reports into a solitary money (USD). Hazard Exposure 2. Loan fee Risk (low) â€â€ ¯ AspenTech obligation utilizing US dollar money fix loan cost and mid term (3years) â€â€ ¯ place an occasional credit extension office with a New England Bank Hazard Exposure 3.†¯Credit Risk â€â€ ¯Ã‚ Credit chance (default hazard) in high introduction level 2 sources likelihood trigger this hazard: developing quickly client decide to concede installment of their permit over the life of the agreement Ex: AspenTech was subject for $ 4,6 million of this sum under constrained plan of action understanding Reluctant (Low) a large portion of the clients are an unwavering client Incapable (High) rely upon the kind of business of client Liquidity Risk a significant number of its clients decided to concede installment of their licenses over the life of the agreement the organization typically encountered a working money shortage Ex: the firm reserved income of USD57.5 million, yet get money installments legitimately from clients of just $38.5 million (66.96%). The board Risk Perform by AspenTech Remote Exchange Risk wiped out all business exchange introduction emerging from outside money named permit contract inline with its hazard the executives arrangement by doing supporting : â€â€ ¯ Sale non USD portion receivable for USD â€â€ ¯ forward money understanding Credit Risk â€â€ ¯ AspenTech has not dealt with the danger of the uncollectible portion â€â€ ¯ The agreement with GE and Sanwa in selling the record receivable has restricted plan of action understanding  Liquidity Risk â€â€ ¯ To deal with its liquidity chance so as to cover their everyday activity, AspenTech sell its receivable to GE and Sanwa and other budgetary organization. â€â€ ¯AspenTech likewise has obligation to Massachusetts Capital Resources â€â€ ¯ put an occasional credit extension office with New England bank. Proposal AspenTech’s ought to reevaluate the firm hazard the board arrangements and practices considering the progressions : â€â€ ¯ over the previous year AspenTech’s universal deals had stayed a generous bit of its incomes â€â€ ¯ the firm global costs had increment a somewhat quicker rate than its worldwide income â€â€ ¯ AspenTech had gone from privately owned business into a traded on an open market organization AspenTech’s should survey and decide a satisfactory degree of hazard. It includes deciding sensible degree of hazard in-accordance with proper chance to pick up Proposal Net Foreign Exchange Exposure (Operational Hedging) AspenTech’s Value at Risk, 1995 (95% certainty level) UK Pound German DM Belgian Franc Japanese Yen Costs in neighborhood cash 3,129 722 158,223 414,793 Month to month Std. Deviation 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 3.00% Trade Rate* 1.5873 0.6711 0.0326 0.0106 All out *Average swapping scale (U.S. dollar per unit of outside cash) over monetary year 1995 VaR $238 22 230 218 $707 AspenTech’s Net Foreign Exchange Exposure (‘000) by Currency, 1995 Cash Inflows UK Pound German DM Belgian Franc Japanese Yen Current Sales 1,724 1,015 308,984 Earlier Sales 981 577 175,781 Money Outflows Costs 3,129 722 158,223 414,793 AspenTech should fence just the net presentation †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Net remote trade presentation in German and Japan †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Forward agreement for Belgian’s working cost Net Exposure (424) 870 (158,223) 69,972 Suggestion Liquidity and Credit Risk â€â€ ¯ AspenTech should look other chance to manage other money related establishment to expand their bartering position to GE and Sanwa With higher haggling position, AspenTech can show signs of improvement position in dealing with their credit chance â€â€ ¯ Maximize in selling long haul receivable first Suggestion Others Hedging Instrument : â€â€ ¯ Plain-Vanilla Options give the purchaser of the alternative the privilege yet not the commitment to purchase (call) or sell (put) a particular measure of money at a foreordained strike value (conversion scale Significant expense â€â€ ¯ Average-Rate Options †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Spot rate are determined as a normal over a period †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Transaction conceivable during the expiry time frame at a few foreordained dates †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Strike rate can be fixed or gliding â€â€ ¯ Knock-in/take out Options †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Does not give full insurance †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ The key is in deciding the hindrance rate †¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¯ Low expense â€?

How Long Do Barbiturates Stay in Your System

How Long Do Barbiturates Stay in Your System Addiction Drug Use Prescription Medications Print How Long Do Barbiturates Stay in Your System? By Buddy T facebook twitter Buddy T is an anonymous writer and founding member of the Online Al-Anon Outreach Committee with decades of experience writing about alcoholism. Learn about our editorial policy Buddy T Medically reviewed by Medically reviewed by Steven Gans, MD on December 14, 2015 Steven Gans, MD is board-certified in psychiatry and is an active supervisor, teacher, and mentor at Massachusetts General Hospital. Learn about our Medical Review Board Steven Gans, MD Updated on June 28, 2019 Tom Grill / The Image Bank / Getty Images More in Addiction Drug Use Prescription Medications Cocaine Heroin Marijuana Meth Ecstasy/MDMA Hallucinogens Opioids Alcohol Use Addictive Behaviors Nicotine Use Coping and Recovery Barbiturates are sedative-hypnotic drugs may be prescribed for controlling seizures, acute migraine, and in medical anesthesia. They are very hazardous for interacting with alcohol and opiates while any trace of barbiturates is still in your system. If you are prescribed barbiturates, you need to know how to avoid interactions and overdoses.?? How Long Barbiturates Remain in Your System If you have been prescribed barbiturates and you will be having a toxicology screen for employment or other purposes, be sure to disclose to the testing authority which medications you are taking. Barbiturates are part of the typical screening panel. By disclosing your prescriptions the lab and pathologist will be able to better interpret the results.?? Several factors are involved in determining how long barbiturates are detectable in the body, including which kind drug test is being used.?? Detection Windows Depending on the type of test used, barbiturates can be detected for as long as:Blood: 72 hoursSaliva: 3 daysUrine: 6 weeksHair follicle: 3 months There are a number of factors that play a role in how long barbiturates can be detected in your system, including your body mass index, hydration levels, age, food intake, sex, metabolism, the amount taken, and the frequency of use.?? How Long Barbiturates Affect You Because barbiturates come in many different formulations, they vary quite a bit in how long they stay in your system.?? Barbiturates come in short-acting and intermediate-acting formulations. Amobarbital and butalbital are intermediate-acting while pentobarbital and secobarbital are short-acting. This influences how long they stay in your system. The shorter-acting varieties have a short half-life and are eliminated from the body faster. Discuss the time frames of the specific drug with your doctor. Other medications and substances can influence the effect that barbiturates have. Tell your doctor about any other prescriptions or other substances you are taking so your dosage can be adjusted. Never start or stop taking any medication without discussing it with your doctor. Substances that may interact with barbiturates include medications for anxiety, depression, pain, asthma, colds, or allergies, blood thinners, hormone replacement therapy, oral steroids, and any sleeping pills.?? Do not drink alcohol while taking barbiturates until your doctor has said it is allowable. There is a large danger of overdose when you drink alcohol while any barbiturates are still in your system.?? When taking a prescription of a barbiturate such as phenobarbital, do not suddenly stop taking it or you may go through withdrawal.?? It is important that you work with your doctor for an appropriate dosing schedule if the medication is going to be discontinued. Barbiturate Dependence Can Develop at Prescribed Doses Types of Barbiturates Common types are Amytal (amobarbital), Fiorinal (butalbital), Nembutal (pentobarbital), Donnatal (phenobarbital), and Seconal (Secobarbital).   Besides appropriate medical uses, they are also diverted as drugs of abuse, either by themselves or mixed with other drugs. Street names for barbiturates include downers, blue heavens, yellow jackets, purple hearts, reds, and rainbows.?? You can  look up the specific drug  you are taking to see the precautions for that medication on the Medication Guide on the FDA website. Preventing Barbiturate Intoxication or Overdose Barbiturates work by slowing activity in the brain. They cause relaxation and sleepiness.  Because Barbiturates are depressants, even low doses can cause someone to seem like they are drunk or intoxicated.?? The risk of overdose is great, especially when combined with alcohol or opiates. Mixing with those substances can result in overdose, coma, and death. If you are prescribed barbiturates, discuss this with your doctor. Symptoms of Barbiturate Intoxication and Overdose Symptoms of barbiturate intoxication and overdose can include:?? Altered level of consciousnessDifficulty thinkingDrowsiness  or  comaFaulty judgmentIncoordinationShallow breathingSlowness of speechSluggishnessSlurred speechStaggering If someone you know has taken an overdose and seems extremely tired or has breathing problems, call 9-1-1 or the National Poison Control Center (1-800-222-1222). Recognize the Signs of a Drug Overdose

Crime Young People - Free Essay Example

Under schedule 3 of the Criminal Justice Act 2003, an Offence committed solely by a Juvenile, a Juvenile being a young adult aged 10-17, will commence in the Youth Court. Max Greentree is categorised as a Juvenile because he is of the age of 15, however the crime has not been solely committed by him therefore his trial would not commence in the Youth Court. If a Juvenile is charged jointly with an adult the case inaugurates in the Magistrates Court the usual way. The magistrates then will have to decide if the two defendants should be kept together or if the adult should be dealt with in Magistrates Court and the young person in the Youth Court. The adult will determine jurisdiction throughout the trial process until sentencing where the case MAY be remitted to the Youth Court. Where a youth offender is jointly charged with an adult, the charge shall be heard in the adult magistrates court: Section 46 (1) CYPA 1933.  [1] What factors will the court take in consideration when considering whether to grant bail to Max Greentree whilst awaiting trial? On the facts stated above, conclude your answer to this question by indicating whether you consider he will be granted bail and why. The Bail Act 1976 applies to juveniles. The Bail Act 1976 states the criteria for granting and refusing bail. There is always a presumption that the offender has a right to bail. However there are some exceptions. The court is obliged to consider the interests of the youth which is stated under section 44 Children and Young Persons Act 1933  [2]  . In deciding whether to grant Max Greentree bail and impose any conditions on the bail the court will consider his previous convictions. Max has previously been convicted of taking a bicycle without permission where he pleaded not guilty. The court if made aware of this conviction could possibly deny him bail under the Bail Act 1976 or impose conditions on his bail. In addition to the conviction he also has a reprimand for shoplifting this also if brought to the attention of the court may affect his chances of receiving bail. He has a previous charge of theft of a leather jacket however; he failed to attend an appointment with the youth offending team and failed to attend sentencing. Based on his previous convictions, bad attendance record and his apparent dishonest character there appears to be an extensive bad previous history which most probably will negatively affect his right to bail. The only factor which could positively affect his right to bail is his family ties. The family he has consist of his parents and his two siblings this would look good as it shows that he has connections which could keep him under guard. There appears to be strong evidence against him in regards to this charge of theft. The security guard gave his description to the police so it is possible that the security guard may have seen him during the act. At the time of arrest he was found in position of the stolen digital camera. In the event that the court is made aware of his full previous criminal history, i.e. conviction and reprimand the court most likely will deny him bail as he appears to be very untrustworthy and d ishonest. If bail is refused, where will Max Greentree be detained whilst he awaits trial? If bail is refused to a Max, the Court shall remand him to local authority accommodation, unless he is remanded to a remand centre or prison. The Criminal Justice Act 1991 abolished remands to prison and remands centres for offenders under 17, and replaces them by remands to secure accommodation. The Court shall select the local authority that is to take care of Max and may require any condition on behalf of the local authority that could be obligatory  [3]  , even though it must ask the authority prior to action. Until the Home Secretary is content that local authorities can meet the requirement to provide secure accommodation the provision for 15-16 year old boys stated in the Criminal Justice Act 1991 permits remand centres and prisons to remand them. Where the court is contented that the security obligation is met but agree on that: it is undesirable to remand a 15 or 16 year old boy to remand centre or prison because of his physical or emotional immaturity or a propensity of his to harm himself (sec 23 (5A) Children and Young Persons Act 1969), and the local authority, YOT or probation officer has been consulted, and a bed in secure accommodation is available  [4]   The remand will be not to a remand centre or prison but to a secure accommodation.  [5] Comment on the no comment interview. Then, what are the implications for Max Greentrees trial if he maintains his plea of not guilty in respect of mode of trial Max in spite of advice from his solicitor to give a full interview by answering all questions he listened to his mother and gave a no comment interview. Max had the right to remain silent under s.34 of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 and therefore he is allowed to answer no comment to any questions put to him by the officer. The fact that he gave a no comment interview may harm Maxs defence in court if he wants to rely on facts that he did not mention in the interview. This is as the court may ask why he did not mention the facts in the interview. The court may conclude that facts Max failed to mention in the interview were facts that he should have been expected to reasonably remember, in this case the court may draw such inferences which appear proper. The court then may conclude that Max gave a no comment interview because he had nothing to say that would stand against examination and has since invented his case to fit the prosecution evidence. In additio n Max may not use his solicitor as a reason for his no comment interview. This is as his solicitor did not advice him to do so. If he solicitor had advised him to give a no comment interview max could give evidence that he did so on the advice of his solicitor which does not thereby waive his privilege to use facts in court not given in the interview.  [6] If the case is listened to in the Magistrates Court and the adult defendant pleads not guilty to the accusation, the Magistrates will ask Mr Greentree if he wants to plead guilty or not guilty. As Mr Greentree pleads not guilty, he and the adult defendant will be tried in the Magistrates Court. Nevertheless if Mr Greentree were to plead guilty, the Magistrates Court would remit him to the Youth Court for sentence if the sentences offered to the Magistrates Court are unsuitable. However, if the adult were to plead guilty and the Mr Greentree pleads not guilty, the adult Magistrates Court will try Mr Greentree or remit him t o the Youth Court for trial. If Mr Greentree were to plead guilty, the Magistrates Court will remit him to the Youth Court for sentence if none of the sentences available to the Magistrates Court are appropriate  [7]  . If Max Greentree pleads guilty or is convicted of the latest theft offence, what is the likely sentence he would receive, and which court will sentence him? In determining the sentence, the key elements for consideration are, the age of the offender (chronological and emotional), the seriousness of the offence, the likelihood of further offences being committed and the extent of harm likely to result from those further offences  [8]  . Therefore, the approach to sentencing is individualistic, which means the sentencing will be given according to Max Greentrees personal attributes and history. From the information given we can see that he has an extensive history of criminal behaviour however we can also see that he appears to be emotionally affected I was frightened, I have been really stupid which may indicate, comprehension and apprehension of his acts. In addition he claims to have been influenced by an adult, which may indicate lack of will to commit crime and vulnerability. If the court will take such considerations in mind they may empathise and be lenient on Mr Greentree. Mr Greentree is most likely to receive a Discretio nary Referral Order.  [9]  This is as he does not satisfy the conditions needed for a Mandatory Referral Order as he has been previously convicted. However, although he has been convicted he has never been sentenced to a referral order before and therefore the courts have the discretion to sentence him to one. In addition Mr Greentree has pleaded guilty to the theft offence which is a condition that needs to be satisfied. A referral order can only be made in the youth court or adult magistrates court, not the Crown Court.  [10]  Mr Greentree will most likely be sentenced in the Youth Court if he has pleaded guilty. What action should Max Greentree be advised to take with regards to the outstanding warrant? There are no special request requirements for juveniles. Neither the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 nor the Code G of the D makes special provision. Subjectively Mr Greentree should be advised with regards to the outstanding warrant to bring it attention to the courts if they are not yet aware of it. It would look better on Max Greentrees behalf to be honest from this point onwards about any previous criminal history he may have. His honesty may potentially mitigate his sentence and take aggravation away from the situation. Upon being asked why he did not surrender to the warrant if he explains how he emotionally felt the courts may have an empathetic approach with him. In addition having confessed the warrant at this stage will allow everything to be dealt with all together and avoid the police and the courts having to pursue him.

Pictures and Profiles of Duck-Billed Dinosaurs

Chemical Structures Starting with the Letter Z

Genetically Modified Organisms And Replace Conventional...

There exists a debate over the use of genetically modified organisms to replace conventional food production techniques and the safety of the foods produced. In 2014, the Pew Research Center conducted a survey of the general public and reported that out of a survey of 2,000 individuals 57% of individuals believed it unsafe to consume genetically modified foods, 25% considered it safe, and 6% either did not know or did not answer (Funk and Rainie). In sharp contrast to this statistic, when asked the same question, 88% of 3,748 scientists from the American Association for the Advancement of Science considered genetically modified foods to be safe (Funk and Rainie). This difference in percentages can be considered alarming, but also understandable. Genetically modified organism or genetically engineered are relatively new terms to come to the dinner table. In a world where hunter-gatherers, farmers, and agricultural interests have been the backbone of the development of most civilizatio ns, it is not unfounded to be concerned when biotechnology steps onto the playing field. As aforementioned, genetically engineered crops became available for farmers in 1996, just 20 years ago (Fernandez-Cornejo, et al.). According to the United States Department of Agriculture, the majority of these seeds were engineered with the purpose of providing farmers with a solution to pest management, with the advent of herbicide-tolerant seeds as well as seeds with traits allowing the plant to produceShow MoreRelatedFood Production Of Genetically Modified Food2458 Words   |  10 PagesFrom the Farm to the Table Mass production of genetically modified food has led to the deterioration of nutritional substance in the yields of produce and livestock, bringing a negative environmental consequence, impacting the farms ecosystem and the farmers sustainability. An uninformed public suffers the consequences of false advertising and a lack of labeling laws to make healthy decisions when being unaware of the ingredients and preparation of their food. Organic certified farms promote aRead MoreGenetic Engineering in Agriculture Essay3427 Words   |  14 PagesGenetic Engineering in Agriculture Among the millions of species that inhabit the planet, only twenty species provide ninety percent of the human food supply (Montgomery 2000). Since the introduction of genetic engineering, however, livestock and crops have a more productive future. Transfer of engineered genes from organism to organism occurs through hybridization, conjugation, and transformation in microorganisms. By the substitution of genes into agricultural species, biodiversity canRead MoreAgriculture and Technology6502 Words   |  27 Pagesthe production of food and goods through farming. Agriculture was the key development that led to the rise of human civilization, with the husbandry of domesticated animals and plants (i.e. crops) creating food surpluses that enabled the development of more densely populated and stratified societies. The study of agriculture is known as agricultural science. Agriculture is also observed in certain species of ant and termite. Agriculture encompasses a wide variety o f specialties and techniques, includingRead MoreGot Gmos?: Genetically Engineered Food and the Sustainability of Health and the Environment4857 Words   |  20 Pages: Genetically Engineered Food and the Sustainability of Health and the Environment Jennie Brooks COR 3145 John F. Kennedy University Fall 2006 People hold a very intimate relationship with food, whether it be for nourishment, a peace offering, trade, part of a religious practice, to provide a sense of community, or to satisfy a personal need. Its meanings are rooted deep within and are the foundations of many cultures. There was a time when humans were very connected to the food theyRead More50 Harmful Effects of Genetically Modified (Gm) Foods14312 Words   |  58 Pages50 HARMFUL EFFECTS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED (GM) FOODS In a sentence This article outlines the many harmful effects of GM or genetically-modified foods (known also as genetically-engineered foods) and representng lab-created GMOs or genetically-modified organisms. By Nathan Batalion, ND We are confronted with what is undoubtedly the single most potent technology the world has ever known - more powerful even than atomic energy. Yet it is being released throughout our environment andRead MoreThe concept of cloning has been around since the 1800’s, although, in the field of scientists, it2000 Words   |  8 Pagesbeen around since the 1800’s, although, in the field of scientists, it has slowly been evolving into a vigorously debated topic, throughout the last 3 decades. Cloning is essentially defined as the process of artificially reproducing genetically identical organisms. Scientists all around the world, through research, are still learning more about the topic, but the fascinating process officially gained awareness as a result of a 1986 experiment conducted by Ian Wilmut, scientist at the Roslin InstituteRead MoreBCH190 Essay14810 Words   |  60 Pages# 2 on lectures 3, 4, and including Chapter 2 1. Difference occurs in the sequence of long chain molecules and becomes information in biological organisms. ‘Life’ assembles itself into chains: (A) of RNA (B) all of the answers are correct (C) of DNA (D) of protein (E) none of these answers are correct 2. Which of the following foods is not a significant source of complex carbohydrates? (A) fresh fruit (B) rice (C) pasta (D) oatmeal (E) all of the above are significantRead MoreFood Politics7528 Words   |  31 PagesThe ways in which the food system is failing us are numerous. It is failing some in quantity, while failing others in quality. The only members of the food system that are not being exploited are the corporate food producers, and that is because they are the exploiters in this equation. Just like the schoolyard that we are all familiar with, there are two groups on the food system playground; the bullied and the bullies. In comparison to the schoolyard example, the bullies are in the minority,Read MoreContemporary Diet and Nutrition Essay example4351 Words   |  18 PagesAmericans Nationwide Food Consumption Nutritional Principals and Standards Basic Food Groups Guidelines for Healthy Eating Relationship between Nutrition and Human Health Nutritional Status Emerging Health Issues Resources Health.gov USDA Medicine.net Tools MyPryimid Unit 2 Food Choices Information to Remember Defining Food Choices How Food Habits Develop Influences and Determinates of Food Choices Impact of Geography on Food Choices The Problems of Food Misinformation Read MoreAn Evaluation of an on-Farm Food Safety Program for Ontario Greenhouse Vegetable Producers; a Global Blueprint for Fruit and Vegetable Producers51659 Words   |  207 PagesAn evaluation of an on-farm food safety program for Ontario greenhouse vegetable producers; a global blueprint for fruit and vegetable producers A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Graduate Studies Of The University of Guelph by Benjamin J. Chapman In partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science February, 2005 ( Benjamin Chapman, 2005 Abstract An evaluation of an on-farm food safety program for Ontario greenhouse vegetable producers; a global

The Organizational Culture And Subcultures Within A...

The organizational culture and subcultures within a business determines, to a larger extent, how the business performs and the quality of people that comprises an organization. Such culture is often initially created on purpose, but takes on life and identity of its own, developing organically and eventually controls and cultivates people within the organization. The case of Lincoln Electric Company is an interesting one, starting from the very early beginnings when the company was run by the brothers, the original founder John Lincoln who decided to concentrate on inventions and RD side of things, who handed the helm over to his brother, James Lincoln. The management system and underlying philosophy at Lincoln can be characterized by clarity and commitment. The system was instituted with clear priority and purpose and the management had confidence and courage to commit to the decisions they made. The order of priority, namely customers first, employees next and stockholders last, makes any subsequent decision making simple. The values that founded this order of priority, as well as benefits provided to each of these categories, are based on Christian values, but the empathetic approach that results is most certainly beneficial to anyone in any of these categories. The caring attitude and evident sincerity that was demonstrated by actual impl ementations not only convinced all those concerned that these were not merely slogans and publicity stunts but became beliefs shareShow MoreRelatedEmployee Organizational Culture Essay667 Words   |  3 Pagescreate what is known as organizational culture. A strong culture constructs a unified employee atmosphere, whereas a weak culture lacks a shared sense of distinction between employees. An employee’s heritage or individual culture, although different than, affects the overall organizational culture of companies. Like society, sub-cultures exist within organizations. Formed by departmental function, geographical location, and/or the personalities of employees, sub-cultures include employees who continueRead MoreIntroducing Organizational Culture : An Executive Summary1144 Words   |  5 PagesIntroducing Organizational Culture: An Executive Summary The resources for Unit 1 consisted of two viewing videos, two reading articles and part one of Schein’s book Organizational Culture and Leadership. Using these resources, students received an introduction to the fundamentals of organizational culture and leadership. The assignment highlights how culture affects organizations and the importance of a good leader in understanding this. How culture starts and becomes part of an organization’sRead MoreBackground. Culture Refers To The Shared Values And Beliefs1379 Words   |  6 PagesBackground Culture refers to the shared values and beliefs that bind organizations together. The role of institutional culture should not be understated. There are four broad principles of culture: (1) it creates and maintains a unique identity; (2) it promotes loyalty and personal investment to the organization, such as a college; (3) it promotes cohesiveness to the group; and (4) it manages and influences individual and group action (Gage, 1978; Goodlad, 1984; and Kuh Whitt, 1988). There isRead MoreSouthwest Airlines : The Highest Levels Of Emotional Intelligence1076 Words   |  5 Pagesbut the ones that will be discussed are emotional intelligence, and cultural organization. More often than not, developing these areas are easier said than done. Emotional Intelligence is defined as the â€Å"ability to understand emotions and manage relationships effectively† (Pg. 76). Southwest Airlines displays some of the highest levels of emotional intelligence. For example, Dave Ridley (Senior Vice-President of Business Development) mentions that while a day at the airport can be stressful, â€Å"a gentleRead MoreIntegrating Culture and Diversity in Decision Making Essay1138 Words   |  5 PagesIntegrating Culture and Diversity in Decision Making: The CEO and Organizational Culture Profile BUS 520 - Dr. Joy Lee Story August 3, 2013 1. Provide a brief (1 paragraph) description of the organization you chose to research. Zappos was founded in 1999 during the dotcom boom by Nick Swinmurn [ (Twitchell, 2009) ] on a quest to buy a pair of sneakers at a local mall. It has grown in to a 1.2 billion dollar subsidiary of Amazon.com and a leading on-line provider of everything from shoesRead MoreOrganizational Culture And Leadership Development1275 Words   |  6 Pagesindividuals who are divergent to them. Similarly, as organizations progressively generate business associations with organizations whose cultures are different, employees may work with others who hold different views of what establishes effective functioning in an organization, and what relationships are existent between organizational factors and workplace effectiveness (Kwantes and Boglarsky, 2007). Knowing the importance of leadership in modern-day organizations, it is not shocking that leadership developmentRead MoreAssessing Organizational Culture - Essay1216 Words   |  5 PagesAssessing Organizational Culture 1 Running head: ASSESSING ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE Assessing Organizational Culture BADM 6123, Master in Business Administration – Health Care Southern Nazarene University Dr. Liesa Persaud Rick Lawrence March 31, 2012 Assessing Organizational Culture 2 Read MoreThe Importance Of Culture Within A Company Across Time Essay1664 Words   |  7 PagesIntroduction Corporate culture is the pattern of shared and stable beliefs and values that are developed within a company across time (Gordon and Ditomaso, 1992). This definition brings the time factor into the picture. In other words the corporate culture will become more ingrained and reinforced the longer an organization is in existence. Medical One, founded in 1992 had a distinct and powerful corporate culture of its own that its employees believed had brought about a high level of care to itsRead MoreOrganizational Culture And Its Cultural Culture1144 Words   |  5 Pagescustoms and traditions that stemmed out from their underlying culture. Similar to these ethnic groups, each organization also have their own unique culture that guides how people behave and what people believe in within the organization. In formal terms, organizational culture is â€Å"the set of values, norms, guiding beliefs, and understandings that is shared by members of an organization and is taught to new members.† [p.332; Organization theory Design; Daft, Armstrong] Put it in simple terms, itRead MoreGeneral Electric As A Global Company1439 Words   |  6 Pages1879. In the year 1890, Thomas Edison started a company that brought all his discoveries and business ventures under one company called the Edison Electric Light Company. Edison’s chief competitor was the Thomas-Houston Company, which had also made innovative strides in the production and distribution of electricity and products that utilize electricity. Utilizing patents that belonged to each business, both companies were having increased difficulty producing completely independent electrical installations

The Alamo Free Essays

The movie started out with Sam Houston attempting to talk individuals into miming to Texas, promising them 640 acres of their choosing, but there was no mention of receiving a League of Land. The movie did a good job on depicting the habits of the characters, showing their attitudes and drinking habits. It also showed how concerning Travis was about his uniform. We will write a custom essay sample on The Alamo or any similar topic only for you Order Now There was no mention of Daniel Cloud being the one to ring the bell; instead it mentioned someone spotting the Mexican Army while they were Norte to the Alamo. Within 24 hours of Santa Ana arriving, he sent a courier under a hit flag to negotiate surrender which was not shown in the movie. It did however show Bowie ride out to negotiate, and Travis firing the cannon in anger. Shortly into the siege it did show Bowie becoming sick from consumption, eventually becoming bedridden because of it. There was only a brief reading from Trivia’s ‘Victory or Death† letter with no mention of the P. S. At the end of the letter. The movie showed a small Mexican detachment fire at the Alamo to size up the forces within. When the decision to burn the village was sought UT, in the movie it showed Davys Crockett by himself setting the village ablaze. In the movie there was no mention of one of the 32 men that came to the aide of the Alamo being shot by friendly fire as they were approaching the mission. On the Mexican side of the battle, Santa Ana said he was waiting for Sam Houston to enter the Alamo to attack, with no mention that they were actually waiting for the larger cannon. During Trivia’s speech to his men, he didn’t specifically mention the fact that Fanning was not coming and when he was knishes with it he didn’t do the sword in sand. In the book it was only said that the Mexican band played the song on the morning of the attack, however in the movie the played it every morning. During the Mexican assault on the Alamo, in the movie there was not 3 distinct attacks just one large one. Trivia’s â€Å"The Mexicans are upon us, give them hell† was not shown in the movie before he was killed. Davys Crockett was shown as the only survivor of the Alamo, and there was no mention of Emily Dickinson. During the Battle of San Action there were quite a few quite few things that were off in the movie from the historical facts of the battle, from the location of the bridge, who was set in first, and placement of the Calvary. There was also no mention of TX Rusk informing Sam Houston that they had Santa Ana, but it did show Santa Ana in the lesser uniform. Overall the film was very well done and showed most of the historical facts about the Alamo, and was suspenseful enough to keep anyone’s attention. The actual historical facts should have been a little more researched and hon. more distinct fully, such as when Travis did the â€Å"Sword in the Sand† speech. In the movie where it showed Travis dispatching Caps Segueing, Travis told Segueing that he chose him due to his knowledge of the area. After doing a little research I discovered that Caps. Segueing was voted to deliver the letter to Houston despite Travis wanting him to stay for his knowledge of Mexican Customs and for the fact that he spoke the language. Anytime a movie is made such as â€Å"The Alamo† utmost attention to detail should be taken for factorization. How to cite The Alamo, Papers

Hacktivists free essay sample

Hacks can range from disrupting websites, cracking data bases and releasing untold amounts of sensitive or private data. There are two different types of hackers, white hats and black hats. White hats are hackers that help prevent people that are on the other side of the law. Some white hats were once black hats that may have been caught and decided to work with government agencys such as the FBI rather than go to Jail. Black hats are hackers that hack for things such as personal gain or to simply disrupt or gain access to information that they want.Almost all hackers have an alias or a handle such as Dark Dante or comrade. Anonymous hacks FBI cybercafà © conference call. Lulls gang leaked a FBI conference call Stratford hack upends private sector intelligence provider. Lessee leader Saba obtains 860,000 Stratford customers info and 60,000 credit card numbers. Hacker king turns informant Saba and five other principal members of Anonymous and Lessee. We will write a custom essay sample on Hacktivists or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Both groups were accused of hacking into Sony, PBS and Stratford. Hastiest Drive Global Law Enforcement Agencies To Unite. Many Law Enforcement agencies around the world have started working together tit the help of Saba to stop cyber crime.Despite arrests hastiest operations continue. you cant arrest an idea attacks launched under the mantle of those groups continued unabated. The FBI has put a lot of resources into trying to stop black hat hackers. Symantec sees peacekeeper Extortion Shakedown. Anonymous released 2 KGB of source code pertaining to the 2006 version of Symantec peacekeeper remote access software. Hackers Target banks over Anti-Muslim Film. (Dos) or distributed denial of service attacks were made by a Muslim hastiest rope calling themselves Cyber Fighters of Size Ad-din AY Assam.They targeted banks for the youth video mocking the founder of Islam. Anonymous Continues Pressing Political Agenda. Anonymous Group obtained and released 1. 7 KGB Justice Department database and 2. 4 million Syrian government emails. Anonymous Achilles Heel: Anonymity. Recurring problems hackers have Is remaining anonymous online. After the website Hideaways. Com complied with law enforcement requests numerous Lulls and Anonymous hackers were caught and arrested. Even antivirus founder John MacAfee has been arrested for black hat crimes

With Christ in the School of Prayer an Example by

With Christ in the School of Prayer Nowadays Christianity is one of the most widespread religions in the world. In this paradigm prayer is the one and only way that allows the adept of the cult to communicate with higher entity, thus it is important to for the believers to be acquainted with the right technique of praying, to learn what actually a prayer is, what are its purposes, and how they should be accomplished. Andrew Murray's book With Christ in the School of Prayer is actually a complete overview of the topics listed, as it gives answers to some of the questions the believers have about the process of praying and it results. Need essay sample on "With Christ in the School of Prayer" topic? We will write a custom essay sample specifically for you Proceed It's obvious that lots of the believers aren't capable to understand and interpret correctly the requirements that are put in the Christian holy book due to the lack of education. Andrew Murray offers a valid interpretation of the process of praying, its purposes and principles. The author notes that in the modern world of profit motives, delusions and disbelief the Christians forgot about the simple promise the Bible contains, which's that the God is ready to give anything to its worshippers, they only have to ask about it. "In connection with this there is another truth that has come to me with wonderful clearness as I studied the teaching of Jesus on prayer" the author writes. "It is this: that the Father waits to hear every prayer of faith, to give us whatsoever we will, and whatsoever we ask in Jesus' name. We have become so accustomed to limit the wonderful love and the large promises of our God, that we cannot read the simplest and clearest statements of our Lord without the qualifying clauses by which we guard and expound them" With Christ in the School of Prayer notes that the best teacher who can give the believers knowledge about how to pray is Jesus Christ himself, who is always ready to help those who want to learn from him. Murray states that Christ's prayer is ideal, as he knows best what pleases his father. The book is dedicated to explaining the most important principles the prayer should follow in order to make his plead effective. The author believes that the key terms to praying are spirit and truth. Spirit - believing in the existence of God and in his power to fulfill the words the prayer speaks. But often the adepts of the religion pray without knowing about the powers their deity possesses and about the conditions he provides his assistance on. For the prayer to be the most effective the believer should know what God wants from him or her, and how should he pray to satisfy him. The good adept should be educated and instructed, he should be acquainted with the interpretations of Bible, and, together with it, he should trust in the powers of God and be honest with him. According to With Christ in the School of Prayer, prayer is an intimate act, thus it should be conducted in a separate, "secret" place, where the one who is talking to God would not be disturbed, where he/she can concentrate on his/her religious feelings without any outer irritants. Prayer is the method of communicating with God which gives the believer the feeling of support and confidence. For those, who really trust God he is the closest person, the one they can come to with any problems, joys or sorrows and to whom they can confess their cherished wishes and dreams. Thus it's obvious that the believer should try to conduct thi act without being disturbed or distracted. This book also teaches the believers to trust God their cravings and hopes and seek assistance from him, as it is said in Bible that "'Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you: for every one that asketh receiveth, and he that seeketh findeth; and to him that knocketh it shall be opened"'--MATT. vii. 7, 8. Murray complains that in these days lots of people underestimate the powers of God, thus they don't see any sense in asking the deity to help them. Here Murray gives one of the vital clues for the successful prayer, which's that if you want God to hear you and fulfill your plead, you should actually believe in his ability to accomplish it. Andrew Murray also emphasizes the importance of prayer for other people in his book. He believes that the prayer is one of the best means of expressing affection, love and care for the chosen person. Besides he reminds about the wonderful effects that the prayer of the two or three people who do it together can give. The author says that the plead of the two or three person who pray united and express the same desire is more effective than the plead of one person The book also tells about the state of consciousness the prayer should attain before beginning to plead. The book reminds us of Jesus Christ's commandment about the need to forgive. Murray says that the believer shouldn't begin praying until he forgives all the people that hurt him, as his mind should be ready to communication with God. Instead, in case the person is aggrieved by something, most of his/her thoughts are about his insult, thus he/she is not concentrating. One of the most important qualities for the prayer is, according to Murray, persistence. He states that the believer should "prey without ceasing", for to get the thing he/she longs for. The author believes that the prayer should be persistent for to God to see that his/her wish is really strong, and that his/her efforts will be evaluated and noted by the deity. In With Christ in the School of Prayer it is also noted that the believer should put his own efforts to fulfill his plead, as God won't be able to help in case the prayer isn't working towards the problem too. I see this book as a guide for the believers in the art of praying. I believe that the great part of believers cannot evaluate the importance of pray for their everyday life. This book would be useful for most of the adepts of Christianity and those who study it, as there the main principles of preying can be found. Works Cited Murray, A. With Christ in the School of Prayer. Barbour Publishing, Inc, 2005

How to Write a Sample Detailed Essay in English

How to Write a Sample Detailed Essay in EnglishA sample descriptive essay written in an ESL language can be a great tool for you to study and learn English in the hopes of being able to communicate with native English speakers. It is a technique to develop yourself as a writer, learn English grammar, and make some easy connections in a foreign country.If you are going to write a sample descriptive essay, there are certain things you should always remember. Just like in writing a newspaper article, using factual information as your basis in writing a paragraph will have very little impact on the end result. Instead, what you want to do is to give readers an overall impression of the essay.This is what will help you connect to the reader on a level they will be able to relate to the overall meaning of the article. This method of writing is called 'theory of conveying ideas.'For example, in writing an article, you want to take in all the facts in English that you have and make it appear to the reader as if they are just an essential part of the meaning of the article. In fact, there are certain descriptive writing tips to consider when attempting to convey ideas in English in order to appeal to people.Most people want to hear from someone who has knowledge about English grammar. What this means is that you will want to use the correct terms and grammar used in a simple way so that the general reader will not have any difficulty understanding what you are trying to convey.The best thing to do is to give the reader a good experience, but not lose them at the end result. Therefore, it is important to remember that you have to offer ideas and not just information.You will be surprised how much you learn from reading sample descriptive essays written in an ESL language. The more you read and write, the better you will become in English and the easier it will be to communicate with natives.

Dogon and Kongo Power Figure Essays

Dogon and Kongo Power Figure Essays Dogon and Kongo Power Figure Paper Dogon and Kongo Power Figure Paper Comparison and Distinction of Two Works of Art : Upon looking at the Dogon Seated Couple one of the main characters I noticed was that the sculpture had an abstractive and subtractive appearance . It is subtractive in the sense that it one can tell it was carved form a wood and metal core. The composition of the sculpture emphasized the couples equivalence, harmony, and connectedness giving of a sense of conceptual unity. The idea of a conceptual unity within the figure styles the couple and they are forced to share the same features . The sculptures sit along each other’s side and the male wraps his arms around the women and lays it warmly on her breast. His other arm is placed it on his genital area this is set to emphasize the joining of man and women. The illustration of a the seated man and women highlights as well the proportion and balance portrayed with in the sculpture. The figures are free standing and proportionally stable. The figures are equivalent in size and balance – neither is larger, powerful, or impressive than the other. The concept of balance is shown throughout the entire sculpture for example there is a visible amount of negative and positive space all over the art work . The negative space is visible vertically between both of the sculptures, between the arms of the female sculpture and the arm of the male sculpture ; as well as the legs. This negative space forms an interesting relevant shape, and such space is used as an artistic effect to give emphasis to the equal balance in the middle of both figures , the arms, and the legs and feet. The Dogon seated sculptures composition provides the countless importance of geometrical shapes. Both figures get longer at the torso and various geometric shapes were used to represent other body parts and facial features. For example the ovoid heads, squared shoulders, narrow edges, circular breasts and belly button, forearms, and thighs on a parallel plane. Human Couples are one of the most widespread themes in Dogon sculpture. The seated couple figure was created between the 16th and 19th centuries. It shows a male and female couple sitting along each other’s side on a nommo stool, the man with his arm over the shoulder of the woman sitting next to him. The male figure displays his role as a protector by having his arm around the woman and displays his role as a hunter, provider and warrior by having a quiver. The woman similarly displays her own role as a mother, her child on her back. The stool they sit on is held up by four figures that probably represent ancestors who protect and hold up this family.

Mitosis Quiz on Mitotic Cell Division

Mitosis Quiz on Mitotic Cell Division Mitosis Quiz This mitosis quiz is designed to test your knowledge of mitotic cell division. Cell division is a process that enables organisms to grow and reproduce. Dividing cells go through an ordered series of events called the cell cycle. Mitosis is a phase of the cell cycle in which the genetic material from a parent cell is divided equally between two daughter cells. Before a dividing cell enters mitosis it goes through a growth period called interphase. In this phase, the cell duplicates its genetic material and increases its organelles and cytoplasm. Next, the cell enters the mitotic phase. Through a sequence of steps, chromosomes are equally distributed to two daughter cells. Mitosis Stages Mitosis consists of several stages: prophase, metaphase, anaphase, and telophase. Finally, the dividing cell goes through cytokinesis (dividing of the cytoplasm) and two daughter cells are formed. Somatic cells, cells of the body other than sex cells, are reproduced by mitosis. These cells are diploid and contain two sets of chromosomes. Sex cells reproduce by a similar process called meiosis. These cells are haploid and contain one set of chromosomes. Do you know the phase of the cell cycle in which a cell spends 90 percent of its time? Test your knowledge of mitosis. To take the Mitosis Quiz, simply click on the Start The Quiz link below and select the correct answer for each question. JavaScript must be enabled to view this quiz. START THE MITOSIS QUIZ JavaScript must be enabled to view this quiz. To learn more about mitosis before taking the quiz, visit the Mitosis page. Mitosis Study Guide OverviewStages of MitosisMitosis AnimationMitosis Image GalleryGlossary of TermsQuiz

Avian influenza Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Avian influenza - Essay Example The swine flu epidemic of 2009 made things look worse. Efforts since then had been consistently attempting to be ever-ready for an influenza epidemic through improving global surveillance and response capacity. The H5N1 avian flu virus was highly pathogenic and had caused disease widely in wild birds and poultry (CDC, 2009). It caused 408 human cases by February 2009. Guidance for testing of suspected human cases infected with pathological avian flu with H5N1 influenza virus were provided. Enhanced surveillance by local and national health care services was to continue. Cases were to be notified to the local and national authorities immediately a presumptive diagnosis is made. Follow-up of cases was a necessity. In the US, information had to be transferred to the CDC (CDC, 2009). Guidelines for diagnosis Testing and reporting guidelines had been established by the CDC. A person diagnosed presumptively with avian flu had to be hospitalized because it could end fatally. Another require ment for hospitalization was that the temperature of the patient would be equal to or more than 38Â °C. The patient could have any other respiratory illness like pneumonia or acute or severe respiratory illness (CDC, 2009). ... The infection was spread through droplet infection when in close contact. Procedure for diagnosis Clinicians needed to notify the local and higher authorities when a person was to be diagnosed using laboratory tests. Specific guidelines were also followed for the clinicians who performed the specimen collection and testing. Protective equipment for the clinicians was to be strictly used to prevent any contamination of the body parts with the suspected or confirmed person with H5N1 virus and when entering the room where aerosol generating procedures have been used where such a patient was lying in (CDC, 2009). The respiratory protector (N-95) filtering face mask, goggles, face shield, latex gloves, gown and head covering were all included (CDC, 2009). In the absence of a particulate respirator, other certified respirators like the NIOSH-certified N-, R-, or P-class respirators could be used. The aerosol-generating procedures could be done only with the N-95 respirator or powered air p urifying respirators (CDC, 2009). Bronchoalveolar lavage was a high-risk aerosol generating procedure which required excellent protection. If the clinician had a beard, a loose-fitting respirator could be used. The virus could be detected from the bronchoalveolar lavage, oropharyngeal swabs, or endotracheal aspirate as these specimens usually had the virus. The nasopharyngeal swab contained lesser virus so lower respiratory specimen should be taken (CDC, 2009). However nasopharyngeal swabs sufficed for detection of influenza viruses A and B. If most virus count needed to be isolated, multiple respiratory specimens from the same patient could be taken on other days too. The

Energy Conversion and Integrated Solid Waste Management Essay

Energy Conversion and Integrated Solid Waste Management - Essay Example Nonetheless, the resultant combustion ash leads to concentration of inorganic hazardous materials in the refuse. Additionally, refuse combustion could yield other chemicals that could be toxic. The remaining 10% of waste has to be disposed off, mostly landfilled. The Integrated Solid Waste Management, ISMW, is a national solid waste management strategy developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency, EPA to assist local communities in making decisions that promote the most environmentally acceptable strategies. This gives a list of five, starting from the most desirable to the least desirable strategy. The first strategy is to reduce the quantity of waste generated from the source to minimize the effect on energy reserves and natural resources. The next most desirable strategy is to reuse materials. After implementing the first two, materials would then be recycled and recovered. Then, combustion, including all treatment methods, follows. Finally, after implementing all the four strategies, the remaining refuse would be landfilled. Engineering helps in balancing community needs when implementing the ISWM strategy to avoid any problems. This strategy has led to the dramatic growth of recycling in the past 20 years, Worrell and Vesilind (2 012) documenting a growth from 10% recycling in 1989 to 59% in 2008 in California and 16% in 1990 to 33% in 2008

education in America Essay -- essays research papers

The United States has been teaching its students for countless years now. Today's education process in the United States is that of the banking process. Paulo Freire gives light to a new and advanced process by which America should learn by, one that will prove to be an investment for the nations society, and soon will. For years now we have been learning in Americas institutions for the first eighteen to twenty-five years of our lives. Always being taught by our teachers and professors, hoping that what they say will give us light to a hopeful future. Students generally sit in a classroom and absorb or bank, to put it in words of Paulo Freire, the information given or taught by the teachers. According to Paulo Freire we take information given to us by teachers and categorize the information away for later use. Freire contends that when knowledge is passed vertically from teacher to student in the banking concept the knowledge is stored in the brains and cataloged away. An inefficient way to learn that holds us back from reaching our full potential. We, the students, never question the validity of the information. We simply understand that the teacher is right and we take for granted what the teacher gives us. Who says that all information is actually valid, how do we know until we, the students, actually do it. If a student reads in a text that a certain plant when eaten tastes sweet and another tastes bitter the students are then supposed to take for granted that what th... education in America Essay -- essays research papers The United States has been teaching its students for countless years now. Today's education process in the United States is that of the banking process. Paulo Freire gives light to a new and advanced process by which America should learn by, one that will prove to be an investment for the nations society, and soon will. For years now we have been learning in Americas institutions for the first eighteen to twenty-five years of our lives. Always being taught by our teachers and professors, hoping that what they say will give us light to a hopeful future. Students generally sit in a classroom and absorb or bank, to put it in words of Paulo Freire, the information given or taught by the teachers. According to Paulo Freire we take information given to us by teachers and categorize the information away for later use. Freire contends that when knowledge is passed vertically from teacher to student in the banking concept the knowledge is stored in the brains and cataloged away. An inefficient way to learn that holds us back from reaching our full potential. We, the students, never question the validity of the information. We simply understand that the teacher is right and we take for granted what the teacher gives us. Who says that all information is actually valid, how do we know until we, the students, actually do it. If a student reads in a text that a certain plant when eaten tastes sweet and another tastes bitter the students are then supposed to take for granted that what th...

Time Series

IntroductionA time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to construct future values, in other words, to make a forecast. When looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series have a trend or seasonality?Are their outliers? Is there constant variance over time?Essential of Good time seriesThe data must be long enough.There must be equal time gap.There must be a normal period.Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2.There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers.Example 2 This shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some features are:There is an increasing trend. There is seasonality.There are no outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes. Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular variations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time.Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields: StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example. Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast.The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test. Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation. DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value. Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.485122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed.A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values. The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model.Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past. Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2. Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale. The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017)How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Accessed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016)What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018)Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/ 03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18] Time Series A time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to produce future values, in other words, to make a forecast.Important Characteristics to Consider FirstWhen first looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series has a trend or seasonality over time?Are their outliers? With time series data, the outliers are far away from the other data.Is there a long-run cycle or period?Is there constant variance over time? Essential of Good time series Data must be for a sufficient period Equal time ga Constant or normal period. Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers. Example 2 The plot at the top of the next page shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some important features are:There is an increasing trend.There is seasonality.There are no obvious outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes.Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular fluctuations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time. Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields:StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example.Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast. The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test.Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation.DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value.Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components.The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.48 5122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed. A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values.The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model. Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past.Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2.Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale.The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017) How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Access ed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016) What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018) Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18]